Treat Yourself As a US Technology Company

By Heiti Paves (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Going into the US stock markets on Jun 24th after Brexit was confirmed made me confront the issue of how much cash to retain for emergency reserves, which then determines how much cash I can deploy to take advantage of the correction.

And I realized as a person who’s income is mainly from one source (employment) and would be completely obliterated in the event of a lay-off, I displayed characteristics like a typical US technology company – Once a disruption happens (technological disruption such as digital cameras for technology companies like Kodak, or economic recession after 1929’s Black Thursday that had 19% unemployment for people like me), income sharply drops to zero.

One could even argue, anyone who relies heavily on employment as their source of income displays characteristics of a typical US technology company on steroids. Any technology company that gets disrupted has their income sharply drop to zero, but it doesn’t drop to zero over night. For people like me, the income goes to zero over night once I’m laid off and receive my severance payment.

And that’s terrifying. Conventional advice for emergency reserves has always been around 6 months of cash. Let’s be generous and double it, but for the emergency reserves to work it assumes you can find a job within 12 months. Under normal economic conditions, the search for a new job could easily take 24 months, let alone during bad economic conditions where the economy was the reason that you got laid off and the reason why the job search gets prolonged.

So if the top 10 cash hoarding companies (IT and pharmaceuticals) have an average current ratio of 3[1] (which means if they had zero income they could survive for 3 years), and they have multiple lines of products / services that reduce the probability of all sources of income going to zero, shouldn’t employees like me who rely almost exclusively on employment for my source of income hold even more cash?

After all,wasn’t the book name of Intel’s Co-Founders Andrew Grove called “Only the Paranoid Survive“?

[Appendix]

[1] As of Jul 1st 2016, the current ratio of the following companies:

Apple – 1.28

Microsoft – 2.90

Alphabet – 5.14

Cisco – 3.27

Oracle – 3.74

Pfizer – 1.44

Johnson & Johnson – 2.83

Amgen – 4.95

Intel – 1.56

Qualcomm – 2.87

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